Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 33.761767 39.999984 46.825335 54.815956 63.881331 73.813340 85.483546
2025-02-02 26.066923 34.762736 45.174382 58.415675 74.652413 93.752424 117.745287
2025-02-09 20.997788 30.726676 43.210536 60.093961 81.987103 109.052118 144.630654
2025-02-16 17.355478 27.541900 41.413363 61.162164 87.964719 122.437038 169.392325
2025-02-23 14.304708 24.499557 39.167729 61.043294 91.953934 133.101374 190.878965
2025-03-02 11.653082 21.511967 36.472582 59.786941 93.987663 140.968146 208.767945
2025-03-09 9.799760 19.406725 34.719169 59.548966 97.204252 150.371981 228.938637
2025-03-16 7.681085 16.456556 31.222816 56.217690 95.486375 152.551983 238.970421
2025-03-23 6.853031 15.613398 30.982202 57.854681 101.196932 165.528061 264.699447
2025-03-30 5.742172 14.031547 29.271758 56.891162 102.730703 172.335001 281.693736
2025-04-06 5.341993 13.770737 29.824148 59.700620 110.335919 188.501805 313.002139
2025-04-13 4.199497 11.743153 26.891968 56.211373 107.440654 188.425730 319.959503
2025-04-20 3.743696 11.204755 26.853957 58.114870 114.077768 204.216618 352.865390
2025-04-27 3.503967 11.136937 27.765832 61.898547 124.274245 226.336514 396.805383
2025-05-04 3.107927 10.591938 27.619694 63.658055 131.045764 243.244130 433.280839
2025-05-11 2.716575 9.956705 27.180000 64.777424 136.709903 258.553904 467.781352
2025-05-18 2.297363 9.126146 26.177641 64.652873 140.069420 270.138032 496.701204
2025-05-25 1.875267 8.152007 24.681900 63.336335 141.083352 277.743594 519.373874
2025-06-01 1.578989 7.468423 23.754938 63.086932 144.033958 288.723736 547.922648
2025-06-08 1.190954 6.320304 21.459764 59.594762 140.436940 288.064779 556.951927
2025-06-15 1.069505 6.091437 21.505697 61.311037 147.164143 305.893959 597.770383
2025-06-22 0.872446 5.484225 20.418823 60.300905 148.323584 313.750735 621.781638
2025-06-29 0.820823 5.468184 20.991461 63.245869 157.725122 336.924294 672.942929